Hello Everyone, 

I wanted to send out another email as I have spoke with some of you and due to email updates and changes in the US government, my original email may have been lost. For those who didn't recently migrate to Microsoft, this email is just a reminder of what I sent two weeks ago (see below).

Thank you for your time and have a great rest of the week.

Riley F. Bernard, PhD

Postdoctoral Research Scientist
Pennsylvania State University
United States Geological Survey
Patuxent Research Center
Turners Falls, Massachusetts

Work email: [log in to unmask]
Work phone: (413) 863-2462
Professional Website

Pronouns: she/her/hers

"We will be known forever by the tracks we leave."
~Dakota proverb



________________________________________
From: Bernard, Riley F
Sent: Friday, January 17, 2020 10:39 AM
To: Bernard, Riley F
Cc: Grant, Evan H; Alger, Katrina E; Russell, Robin E
Subject: Bsal Treatment Table: Final Report from TWS Workshop

Hello Amphibian Researchers, Managers, and Enthusiasts,

You may remember receiving an invitation to participate in a short workshop during the Bsal in North American special session at the Joint meeting of The Wildlife Society and the American Fisheries Society meeting back in September 2019. For those of you who were able to join the workshop, thank you! For those who were not, but are interested in contributing, this email provides an additional opportunity to do so.

The goal of this email is to send out the draft report for your review, as well as provide an opportunity for revision. This workshop was the first step in explicitly articulating management-specific endpoints, predicting the effect of proposed actions, and identifying where uncertainties within the host-pathogen system may exist. Next, we would like each participant (and those who were unable to attend the original workshop), to update their response based on the results presented in the report, if desired. The results of the workshop, and subsequent updating, will be used to inform the work of the Bsal Research, Management, and Decision Science working groups.

Attached you will find four documents:

  1.  Bsal Workshop Report (Bsal_Workshop_Report.pdf): This document provides the background and summary of the motivation for the workshop, as well as describes the outcome of the work.
  2.  Bsal_Workshop_Report_Supp1: Supplemental document 1 contains the scenarios that participants used to make their estimates on the direction and magnitude of effect that each management action would have for all endpoints.
  3.  Bsal_Workshop_Report_Supp2: PDF version of the Bsal treatment table used during the workshop
  4.  TWS_BslRxTableWorksheet: Excel version of the Bsal treatment table that can be used to update (if you participated in the workshop) or provide estimates (if you were unable to attend but want to provide your expertise).

Note that you do not need to change your estimates - only do so if you have clarified your thinking or changed your understanding of the task. The summary is provided so that you may check your response against the group's mean response.  We are not seeking consensus, and are rather interested in the range of potential predictions among scientists.  If you feel that the answers you provided during the workshop are accurate and do not need to be updated, please let me know. If you, however, would like to update/redo your table, please use the TWS_BslRxTableWorksheet. For those who did not participate in the original workshop, but want to provide estimates, please use the excel worksheet. Below I have provided the original instructions on how to fill out the table. Please turn in your updated tables, new tables, or a confirmation email stating "all is well" to me ([log in to unmask]) by February 14th to be included in the updated analysis.

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Directions on filling out the worksheet:

Choose the scenario that you know best, or feel most comfortable with (Bsal_Workshop_Report_Supp1). Please let me know which scenario you focused on while filling out your worksheet (PNW, NE, SE, SoCal)

  *   For each management action (Table 2. in Bsal Workshop Report), provide your best guess of the effect (increase [I] or decrease [D]) and magnitude (1, 2, 3, with 3 = largest change) for each endpoint (Table 1. in Bsal Workshop Report) for each action

  1.  Note that it is possible that a given action may not affect all endpoints (if so please put a 0), and that it may have opposite effects on different endpoints.
  2.  There remains considerable uncertainty about the effect of each action on each endpoint. Make your best, informed, guess. This is the most likely value, given your current knowledge. If you feel there is complete uncertainty, please leave the cell blank.

Thank you and have a great rest of your day,

Riley F. Bernard, PhD

Postdoctoral Research Scientist
Pennsylvania State University
United States Geological Survey
Patuxent Research Center
Turners Falls, Massachusetts

Work email: [log in to unmask]<mailto:[log in to unmask]>
Work phone: (413) 863-2462
Professional Website<https://sites.google.com/view/drrfb/home?authuser=0>

Pronouns: she/her/hers

"We will be known forever by the tracks we leave."
~Dakota proverb